News just out is that Russia and China have finally signed a gas deal, the negotiations of which have been going-on for a decade. (As the picture above, taken from a Gazprom investor presentation showed, this is something Gazprom has been targeting).
This is a pretty surprising turnaround given that every news outlet was reporting overnight that Russian President Vladimir Putin had failed in his attempts to finalise the deal in his current trip to China which ends tonight.
The key points of the deal are follows:
- The contract will be over 30 years and is unofficially estimated to be worth $400bn (19% of Russian GDP).
- It will see Gazprom supply up to 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to China per year from 2018. Once further pipelines are complete, this could be expanded to 61 bcm per year. As a comparison, over the past four years Gazprom has exported an average of 157 bcm per year to Europe (including Turkey).
- No official price has been revealed but the biggest sticking point has been that China believed Russia’s price demands were too high. It will be interesting to see if Russia gave in on this point.
- This deal has proved increasingly important for Russia as it looks to shift it’s away from relying on European demand for its energy exports.
What does this deal mean for the EU?
- In the short term, not too much. The economic links between Russia and Europe will continue to be significant and they will continue to be reliant on each other when it comes to energy (the former to sell the latter to buy).
- The deal will not be in place until 2018 and even then will only see Russia selling a fraction of its gas exports to China every year, exports to the EU could still well be two to four times the size.
- For these reasons, it is unlikely to change the potential impact which EU sanctions would have on Russia. Although of course Russia remains relatively unconcerned by such threats when it knows of the huge divides within the EU on the issue.
- All that said, it is symbolically important and could have longer term impacts. It highlights Russia’s desire to move away from links with Europe. Combine this with Europe’s desire to increase energy security and the relations between the two sides could become increasingly cold and distant. Although, some countries due to geographical proximity (Bulgaria/Hungary) or due to long standing economic links (Germany) will surely continue to have good relationships with Russia.
- It also raises questions over future tie ups between Russia and China. Areas such as payments systems, broader financial markets, transportation and machinery have all been touted as sectors for potential cooperation between the two countries. Again while a long term issue, such ties up may concern the West since Russia and China are currently reliant on their exports in many of these areas. Both the EU and US will need to figure a clearer policy for how to deal with such changes, with the EU in particular in need of updating its policy towards its eastern neighbourhood.