Open Europe Blog

The package is coming together. The IMF has officially announced that it will take part in the Cypriot bailout, providing €1bn of the total €10bn in loans – that gives a UK share of around €50m (see our thoughts here on UK IMF shares). That leaves €9bn to be provided by the eurozone, likely through the ESM. Below we breakdown the country shares (click to enlarge):

Other details of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) filtering through include:
  • 2.5% interest rate on the loan, with a 10 year grace period on repayments, it will then be repayable over a 12 year period (repayments start in 2023 and finish in 2035).
  • 4.5% in cuts/savings to be found before 2018 (on top of the 7% already scheduled by 2015) to drive Cyprus from a 2.4% primary deficit now to a 4% primary surplus in 2018 (two years later than previously envisaged).
  • The figures given in the MoU leaked yesterday (which reports suggest are the same in the final agreement) imply an 8% contraction in GDP this year and 3% next year. This seems optimistic and could be closer to 10% and 5% respectively, if not worse, but ultimately depends on how long the capital controls are in place for.
  • Eurozone officials will review the agreement tomorrow, with a final proposal to be presented on 9 April, which eurozone finance ministers are expected to approve at an informal Eurogroup meeting in Dublin on the 12 April.
  • The Bundestag could vote on the deal around the 15 April. IMF board expected to approve the deal in early May.
  • First tranche of bailout funds expected in early May, ahead of debt maturing at the start of June which Cyprus needs to pay off.
A few hurdles left to jump then in terms of approval from national parliaments – which is no mean feat given that the figures underpinning the bailout are likely to come under some well-deserved scrutiny.
Author :
Print